“Sunny ways, my friends. Sunny ways.”
With those words, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau began his time in office, having brought the Liberals out of the political wilderness and into a majority government in October 2015.
Those sunny ways followed him into an unseasonably warm November day weeks later, when he attended his official swearing-in at Rideau Hall. As Trudeau made his way up the driveway to the governor general’s residence, he was surrounded by family, members of his new cabinet and throngs of cheering supporters.
For those watching the 23rd prime minister announce his pending resignation as Liberal leader and prime minister on Monday, the contrast couldn’t have seemed more stark. Trudeau delivered the news following his own walk in the snow to a podium outside Rideau Cottage — and after pages from his farewell speech blew away in the icy wind.
“I’ll wing it,” Trudeau said, smiling.
“This country deserves a real choice in the next election, and it has become clear to me that if I’m having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election.”
Just before he spoke, Trudeau’s photographer Adam Scotti captured images of the prime minister with longtime backroom allies — chief of staff Katie Telford, executive assistant Philip Proulx and former communications and planning director Kate Purchase.
Two of Trudeau’s children, Xavier and Ella-Grace, watched their dad speak with Purchase before he walked out of Rideau Cottage to make history.
Tyler Meredith, a former lead economic adviser to Trudeau and author of the 2019 and 2021 Liberal platforms, said Trudeau’s exit follows a common pattern for political leaders — bowing out “at the very last minute.”
“You have to have a certain ego to be a politician,” Meredith said. “You have to believe in yourself, you have to have confidence in yourself, you have confidence in your ability to overcome challenges. And so, sometimes, that can blind you to making a more rational decision.”
“Pretty much every other premier, every other prime minister in the course of the last number of decades has largely left not voluntarily, or been pushed out by circumstances. I think some people have over-read this as a Trudeau story when I think it’s actually a very normal course and arc of political life.”
But Trudeau isn’t quitting at a normal time. The incoming Donald Trump administration in the U.S. is vowing to impose 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods and the president-elect has mused about annexing Canada through “economic force.”
Immigration Minister Marc Miller, a longtime friend of Trudeau, said Wednesday the prime minister is taking that threat seriously, citing the fact that he attended the Canada-U.S. relations cabinet committee an hour after announcing his resignation. Trudeau is not a regular member of that committee.
In an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper on Thursday, Trudeau called Trump’s annexation comments a tactic to distract American voters from the likely impacts of 25 per cent tariffs on goods like oil, gas, electricity and steel. It was Trudeau’s first sit-down interview since announcing his resignation.
While Trudeau said Trump’s comments did not influence his decision to resign, they clearly create uncertainty for Canada.
“Trudeau’s resignation at this point leaves Canada in a precarious position. With Trump’s presidency looming and potential economic upheaval ahead, the timing is disastrous. Resigning now only deepens political uncertainty, leaving the country without clear leadership at a critical time,” said Semra Sevi, an assistant political science professor at the University of Toronto.
Two of the perceived Liberal leadership front-runners — Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly — have ruled themselves out of running for the Liberal leadership to focus on their cabinet responsibilities and responding to the tariff threat.
Joly said Friday that the federal government is looking at imposing retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. if Trump’s threats come to pass.
During the last Trump presidency, Canada imposed targeted tariffs on quintessential American products like Harley Davidson motorcycles and bourbon in response to levies on Canadian steel and aluminum.
While the winner of the Liberal leadership vote on Mar. 9 will become the next prime minister, they’ll have no window in which to attempt to recapture the optimistic momentum of the government’s early days.
Parliament is prorogued until March 24 and confidence votes are expected to follow quickly. All three major opposition leaders plan to bring down the government at the earliest opportunity, setting the stage for a spring election.
As his time in office comes to a close, Trudeau leaves behind a legacy marked by major new programs like the Canada child benefit, the government’s COVID-19 response, the legalization of recreational cannabis and the introduction of carbon pricing.
There are also blemishes on that record: the SNC Lavalin scandal, the furor over Trudeau’s “blackface” photos and criticism of how he worked with members of his caucus. Trudeau’s sometimes fraught relationships with caucus and cabinet hit its lowest point with the stunning resignation of his finance minister Chrystia Freeland; afterward, the calls for his own resignation become too loud for him to ignore.
His immediate replacement may be in office only long enough to become the answer to a trivia question: “Who was the shortest-serving prime minister in Canadian history?”
Meredith said he believes there’s a “75 per cent” chance of a snap election shortly after the House of Commons reconvenes. Current polling puts the Conservatives in a position to win a convincing majority.
Assuming that happens, Meredith said there’s a “decent possibility” the next Liberal leader continues to lead the party from the opposition benches.
“If that person does relatively well, preserves a number of seats, holds [Conservative Leader Pierre] Poilievre to a smaller majority, or even a minority, that person has a long path of staying as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada,” he said.
But if the election turns into a blowout win for the Conservatives, Meredith said Liberals likely will want to find someone else to lead the party, this time after a longer leadership campaign.
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